Do Host Nations perform better at the World Cup?

When Qatar was chosen as the host for the 2022 World Cup there were a great number of eyebrows raised. In fact, the country wasn’t known for being a football hotspot, and the political, ethical, and human rights issues in the area haven’t made their case for hosting the tournament any stronger. This is especially true since the timing of the tournament this time is going to make it hard for many domestic seasons to run on time.

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Yet, despite being ranked only 50th in the world according to FIFA’s latest rankings, history suggests that Qatar might do rather well in the tournament. The host nation often does.

The host country has six World Cup victories. Italy, England, Germany, Argentina, and France were the other countries to enjoy the home-field advantage.

Meanwhile, Sweden reached the final for the only time in their history in front of their home fans in 1958, and 44 years later, when Japan and South Korea jointly staged the tournament, South Korea run to the last four aided by some generous refereeing decisions, was one of the stories of that tournament.

The last host nation to reach the semi-finals was Brazil in 2014, but what subsequently befell them is one of the biggest upsets in the history of the competition as they were put to the sword by the Germans in a 7–1 thrashing in Rio.

Even countries that do not traditionally do well in World Cups tend to get a boost from hosting the tournament, Mexico have twice made the last eight on home soil, and was the same for Russia four years ago.

In fact, in recent memory, South Africa in 2010 were the only host nation that failed to get out of the group stage.

One could also say that Qatar got one of the better draws because they are in Group A with the Netherlands, Senegal, and Ecuador. However, the South American country’s participation is still up in the air because of allegations that they played an ineligible player in the qualifying tournament.

They must believe they have a reasonable chance of progressing to the round of 16 as runners-up, although given that might potentially earn them then a tie with the defending champions France, it is hard to envisage them going further.

That, though, would represent an achievement for a country making its first appearance in the World Cup finals.

As to why host nations tend to do so well, there are a number of factors in their favour. They are used to the conditions, the climate and the time zone, so there are none of the acclimatisation issues that some nations face. They also get large home support, although in the case of this World Cup, there are likely to be many more foreign fans than local supporters in the stadiums.

And, certainly, in the past—1934, 1978, and 2002 are all examples—there is a sense that match officials are more inclined to favor the host nation when making contentious decisions.

Nobody is expecting Qatar to win their own World Cup. But they might do much better than some might expect.